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valor de cada mes, pronosticado 3 meses antes. El REM pregunta comercio exterior desde dic-2020."},{"clave":"importaciones","titulo":"Importaciones","unidad":"% de error","error":"pct","filas":[{"h":"m1","actual":{"n":20,"nuestro":7.235848,"rem":6.917467,"gana_pct":65.0},"todo":{"n":45,"nuestro":9.730303,"rem":8.376317,"gana_pct":48.888889}},{"h":"m3","actual":{"n":18,"nuestro":7.231874,"rem":7.203533,"gana_pct":50.0},"todo":{"n":43,"nuestro":13.507249,"rem":9.561959,"gana_pct":37.209302}},{"h":"m6","actual":{"n":15,"nuestro":6.885711,"rem":8.410404,"gana_pct":66.666667},"todo":{"n":40,"nuestro":15.715639,"rem":10.735381,"gana_pct":35.0}},{"h":"año","actual":{"n":11,"nuestro":1.793738,"rem":2.625197,"gana_pct":72.727273},"todo":{"n":33,"nuestro":3.965871,"rem":3.007252,"gana_pct":51.515152}}],"h_grafico":"m3","grafico":{"x":["2021-03","2021-04","2021-05","2021-06","2021-07","2021-08","2021-09","2021-10","2021-11","2021-12","2022-01","2022-02","2022-03","2022-04","2022-05","2022-06","2022-07","2022-08","2022-09","2022-10","2022-11","2022-12","2023-01","2023-02","2023-03","2023-04","2023-05","2023-06","2023-07","2023-08","2023-09","2023-10","2023-11","2023-12","2024-01","2024-02","2024-03","2024-04","2024-05","2024-06","2024-07","2024-08","2024-09","2024-10","2024-11","2024-12","2025-01","2025-02","2025-03","2025-04","2025-05","2025-06","2025-07","2025-08","2025-09","2025-10","2025-11","2025-12","2026-01","2026-02","2026-03","2026-04","2026-05","2026-06","2026-07","2026-08","2026-09"],"real":[5320.0,4673.0,5141.0,5909.0,5715.0,5754.0,5886.0,5247.0,5767.0,6216.0,5251.0,5634.0,7083.0,6883.0,7886.0,8664.0,8289.0,7837.0,7137.0,6079.0,5762.0,5017.0,5367.98,5028.6,6845.61,6091.24,7385.9,7247.65,6760.68,6884.66,6525.13,5838.88,5481.93,4255.35,4603.95,4118.06,4331.57,4704.52,5012.12,4687.45,5727.05,4882.94,5970.96,6120.46,5249.07,5367.41,5752.75,5864.29,6018.85,6459.96,6487.97,6395.91,6853.67,6462.72,7191.13,7149.97,5597.99,5555.9,5056.67,5166.57,6115.9,6203.14,6128.03,6876.66,6755.73,6706.59,7059.5],"rem":[3809.8,3720.0,4100.0,4150.0,4350.0,4314.0,4400.0,4364.8,4483.5,4480.5,4683.0,4525.0,5416.0,5292.4,5793.1,6213.8,6309.1,6549.0,6420.0,6117.0,6120.5,6271.8,5674.1,5516.5,6421.6,6139.9,6555.6,6400.3,6231.8,6100.0,5994.9,5450.6,5241.9,4783.0,5233.8,4861.5,5371.0,5180.0,5950.0,5754.0,5770.0,5673.2,5413.6,5083.6,5032.7,4891.0,5018.5,4845.2,5467.0,5593.6,6257.0,6167.6,6594.7,6494.0,6566.46,6502.5,6117.0,5960.0,6037.83,5992.04,6489.63,6604.22,6849.55,6926.1,7191.44,7128.66,7077.1],"nuestro":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,7953.73,7285.44,8075.95,8105.93,7780.6,7044.78,6424.22,5376.15,5145.77,4490.86,5012.45,4945.37,6884.51,5956.21,6935.99,6458.45,5468.76,5639.5,5155.41,4682.96,4633.64,3637.27,4393.88,4208.34,4619.0,5563.98,6033.73,6118.93,7348.93,6126.66,7139.42,7078.89,5672.23,5785.9,5902.14,5935.12,5780.52,6087.91,5752.6,5619.32,6225.48,6055.43,6892.08]},"nota":"Gráfico: valor de cada mes, pronosticado 3 meses antes. El REM pregunta comercio exterior desde dic-2020."}],"indicadores":[{"clave":"inflacion","titulo":"Inflación","valor":1.93361,"unidad":"% mensual","fecha":"2026-09","detalle":"Núcleo 1,7% · interanual 33,4%","fuente":"INDEC","dec":1},{"clave":"dolar","titulo":"Dólar mayorista (A3500)","valor":1528.263,"unidad":"$ por USD","fecha":"2026-10-23","detalle":"+0,7% en el mes","fuente":"BCRA","dec":2},{"clave":"ccl","titulo":"Dólar CCL","valor":1639.5,"unidad":"$ por USD","fecha":"2026-10-23","detalle":"Brecha con el oficial 7,3%","fuente":"ArgentinaDatos","dec":2},{"clave":"mep","titulo":"Dólar MEP","valor":1553.6,"unidad":"$ por USD","fecha":"2026-10-23","detalle":"Brecha con el oficial 1,7%","fuente":"ArgentinaDatos","dec":2},{"clave":"pib","titulo":"PIB trimestral","valor":-0.591773,"unidad":"% trimestral s.e.","fecha":"2026T2","detalle":"EMAE ago-2026: +0,1% mensual s.e.","fuente":"INDEC","dec":2},{"clave":"super","titulo":"Precios en supermercados","valor":2.466,"unidad":"% en el mes","fecha":"2026-10","detalle":"Lo que va del mes contra el mes anterior (SEPA)","fuente":"Datos Con Método sobre SEPA","dec":2},{"clave":"fiscal","titulo":"Resultado primario","valor":13.705324,"unidad":"billones de $","fecha":"2026-09","detalle":"Acumulado ene-sep 2026","fuente":"Secretaría de Hacienda","dec":1},{"clave":"tamar","titulo":"Tasa TAMAR","valor":24.5,"unidad":"TNA %","fecha":"2026-10-22","detalle":"Plazos fijos de $1.000 millones o más","fuente":"BCRA","dec":1}],"conteo":{"series":1821,"datos":1407077,"fuentes":30,"series_al_dia":1584,"series_vigentes":1703,"series_historicas":118},"sellos":[],"semaforo_datos":{"color":"verde","pct":100.0,"al_dia":16,"total":16,"atrasados":[],"detalle":[{"id":"indec_ipc_general_indice_var_mensual","nombre":"IPC, nivel general (INDEC)","hasta":"2026-09-30","plazo_dias":75,"al_dia":true},{"id":"indec_ipc_nucleo_indice_var_mensual","nombre":"IPC, núcleo (INDEC)","hasta":"2026-09-30","plazo_dias":75,"al_dia":true},{"id":"utdt_ei_promedio","nombre":"Expectativas de inflación de los hogares, promedio (UTDT)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":75,"al_dia":true},{"id":"utdt_ei_mediana","nombre":"Expectativas de inflación de los hogares, mediana (UTDT)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":75,"al_dia":true},{"id":"dcm_sepa_diario_nacional","nombre":"Precios de supermercados (SEPA)","hasta":"2026-10-25","plazo_dias":6,"al_dia":true},{"id":"bcra_api_tc_mayorista_a3500","nombre":"Dólar mayorista A3500 (BCRA)","hasta":"2026-10-23","plazo_dias":6,"al_dia":true},{"id":"cem_dolar_futuro_k1_ajuste","nombre":"Dólar futuro a 1 mes (CEM)","hasta":"2026-10-23","plazo_dias":6,"al_dia":true},{"id":"cem_dolar_futuro_k6_ajuste","nombre":"Dólar futuro a 6 meses (CEM)","hasta":"2026-10-23","plazo_dias":6,"al_dia":true},{"id":"bcra_api_tamar_tna","nombre":"Tasa TAMAR (BCRA)","hasta":"2026-10-22","plazo_dias":6,"al_dia":true},{"id":"indec_emae_desest","nombre":"EMAE desestacionalizado (INDEC)","hasta":"2026-08-01","plazo_dias":125,"al_dia":true},{"id":"indec_pib_desest_pib","nombre":"PIB trimestral desestacionalizado (INDEC)","hasta":"2026-04-01","plazo_dias":270,"al_dia":true},{"id":"datosgob_452.3_RESULTADO_RIO_0_M_18_54","nombre":"Resultado primario, IMIG (Secretaría de Hacienda)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":80,"al_dia":true},{"id":"datosgob_74.3_IET_0_M_16","nombre":"Exportaciones (INDEC)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":85,"al_dia":true},{"id":"datosgob_74.3_IIT_0_M_25","nombre":"Importaciones (INDEC)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":85,"al_dia":true},{"id":"bm_indice_grains","nombre":"Precios de granos (Banco Mundial)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":70,"al_dia":true},{"id":"bm_indice_oils_meals","nombre":"Precios de aceites y harinas (Banco Mundial)","hasta":"2026-09-01","plazo_dias":70,"al_dia":true}]},"mes_en_curso":[{"clave":"inflacion","titulo":"Inflación","periodo":"Octubre 2026","valor":"1,93%","unidad":"mensual (IPC nacional)","nota":"Incluye los precios de supermercados del mes en curso."},{"clave":"dolar","titulo":"Dólar mayorista (A3500)","periodo":"Octubre 2026","valor":"$1.523,44","unidad":"$ por USD, promedio del mes","nota":"Promedio de 16 días con dato (hasta el 23/10) y 5 días hábiles que faltan, en línea recta hasta el dólar futuro de fin de mes ($1.535)."},{"clave":"pib","titulo":"PIB trimestral","periodo":"2026 T3","valor":"−2,48%","unidad":"contra el trimestre anterior, s.e.","nota":"Último trimestre todavía sin dato oficial del INDEC."},{"clave":"super","titulo":"Precios en supermercados","periodo":"Octubre 2026","valor":"2,75%","unidad":"en el mes, proyectado a fin de mes","nota":"Promedio del mes contra el del mes anterior (SEPA). Datos hasta el 25/10; los 6 días que faltan siguen el ritmo de las últimas dos semanas (0,61% por semana)."},{"clave":"fiscal","titulo":"Resultado primario","periodo":"Año 2026","valor":"B$ 13,9","unidad":"billones de $","nota":"El REM pide el año completo, no el mes."},{"clave":"tamar","titulo":"Tasa TAMAR","periodo":"Octubre 2026","valor":"24,32%","unidad":"TNA, promedio del mes","nota":"Promedio de 15 días con dato (hasta el 22/10) y 6 días hábiles que faltan, iguales a la última tasa (24,50%)."},{"clave":"exportaciones","titulo":"Exportaciones","periodo":"Octubre 2026","valor":"US$ 8.926 M","unidad":"millones de USD","nota":""},{"clave":"importaciones","titulo":"Importaciones","periodo":"Octubre 2026","valor":"US$ 7.110 M","unidad":"millones de USD","nota":""}],"ultimo_rem":{"relevamiento":"2026-09","titular":"El BCRA publicó el REM de septiembre de 2026, con las respuestas de unos 41 participantes. Las estimaciones de Datos Con Método quedaron todas entre las pronosticadas por las consultoras (10 de 10).","nota":"NOTA TRANSITORIA: este informe es anterior a que empezáramos a registrar el pronóstico. Nuestros números son una reconstrucción hecha solo con los datos que se conocían en ese momento. Desde el REM de octubre de 2026, el pronóstico queda registrado y sellado antes de que el BCRA publique el REM.","filas":[{"titulo":"Inflación de septiembre de 2026","clave":"inflacion","rem":"1,90%","nuestro":"1,53%","texto":"DCM*: 0,37 puntos menos que la mediana del REM. Entre los más bajos: solo el 6% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"extremo","rango":{"min":1.4051,"p10":1.6042,"p50":1.9,"p90":2.0173,"max":2.33},"v_nuestro":1.5271,"consultoras":44},{"titulo":"Inflación de octubre de 2026","clave":"inflacion","rem":"1,70%","nuestro":"1,59%","texto":"DCM*: 0,11 puntos menos que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 23% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":1.2,"p10":1.55,"p50":1.7,"p90":1.9,"max":2.02},"v_nuestro":1.5947,"consultoras":44},{"titulo":"Inflación de los próximos 12 meses","clave":"inflacion","rem":"21,05%","nuestro":"20,33%","texto":"DCM*: 0,72 puntos menos que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 33% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":12.5923,"p10":17.668,"p50":21.05,"p90":24.5163,"max":27.0},"v_nuestro":20.3347,"consultoras":40},{"titulo":"Dólar mayorista, promedio de octubre de 2026","clave":"dolar","rem":"$1.545","nuestro":"$1.539","texto":"DCM*: $6 menos que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 21% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":1525.0,"p10":1536.21,"p50":1545.032,"p90":1576.0,"max":1637.5977},"v_nuestro":1539.1409,"consultoras":44},{"titulo":"Dólar mayorista, diciembre de 2026","clave":"dolar","rem":"$1.614","nuestro":"$1.597","texto":"DCM*: $17 menos que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 29% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":1550.0,"p10":1575.8501,"p50":1614.3223,"p90":1664.2537,"max":1745.6023},"v_nuestro":1597.4277,"consultoras":44},{"titulo":"PIB del 3.º trimestre de 2026","clave":"pib","rem":"−0,95%","nuestro":"−0,87%","texto":"DCM*: 0,08 puntos más que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 54% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":-2.1,"p10":-1.833,"p50":-0.95,"p90":0.811,"max":1.8},"v_nuestro":-0.869,"consultoras":38},{"titulo":"Tasa TAMAR, promedio de octubre de 2026","clave":"tasa","rem":"23,56%","nuestro":"23,67%","texto":"DCM*: 0,11 puntos más que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 56% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":19.8,"p10":22.0,"p50":23.5625,"p90":24.5,"max":28.7},"v_nuestro":23.6738,"consultoras":41},{"titulo":"Resultado primario de 2026","clave":"fiscal","rem":"B$ 15,0","nuestro":"B$ 13,6","texto":"DCM*: 1,4 billones de $ menos que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 20% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":9000.0,"p10":12408.8568,"p50":15000.0,"p90":16000.0,"max":21056.0},"v_nuestro":13564.8291,"consultoras":41},{"titulo":"Exportaciones de 2026","clave":"comercio","rem":"US$ 101.200 M","nuestro":"US$ 99.496 M","texto":"DCM*: US$ 1.704 millones menos que la mediana del REM. Entre los más bajos: solo el 6% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"extremo","rango":{"min":98905.0045,"p10":99977.0844,"p50":101200.0,"p90":102531.0,"max":105601.2137},"v_nuestro":99495.51,"consultoras":41},{"titulo":"Importaciones de 2026","clave":"comercio","rem":"US$ 75.499 M","nuestro":"US$ 75.056 M","texto":"DCM*: US$ 443 millones menos que la mediana del REM. En la franja del medio: el 35% de las consultoras pronosticó menos que DCM*.","ubicacion":"central","rango":{"min":72266.3552,"p10":73940.0,"p50":75498.69,"p90":77032.0,"max":78072.0},"v_nuestro":75055.55,"consultoras":41}]},"ultimos_reales":{"titular":"De las 6 variables con dato nuevo, Datos Con Método estuvo más cerca en 2 y el REM en 4. Hay espacio para mejorar.","filas":[{"titulo":"Inflación de septiembre de 2026","clave":"inflacion","fuente":"INDEC","real":"1,93%","rem":"1,90%","nuestro":"1,53%","gana":"rem","texto":"Estuvo más cerca el REM. El pronóstico de DCM* quedó más cerca del dato que el 6% de las consultoras (puesto aproximado: 42 de 45).","cuando":"Pronósticos del REM de septiembre de 2026 (reconstrucción)","rango":{"min":1.4051,"p10":1.6042,"p50":1.9,"p90":2.0173,"max":2.33},"v_nuestro":1.5271,"v_real":1.9336},{"titulo":"Dólar mayorista, promedio de septiembre de 2026","clave":"dolar","fuente":"BCRA","real":"$1.514","rem":"$1.530","nuestro":"$1.529","gana":"nosotros","texto":"Estuvo más cerca DCM*. El pronóstico de DCM* quedó más cerca del dato que el 54% de las consultoras (puesto aproximado: 23 de 48).","cuando":"Pronósticos del REM de agosto de 2026 (reconstrucción)","rango":{"min":1500.0,"p10":1514.192,"p50":1530.3977,"p90":1546.7908,"max":1603.77},"v_nuestro":1529.0836,"v_real":1513.887},{"titulo":"PIB del 2.º trimestre de 2026","clave":"pib","fuente":"INDEC","real":"−0,59%","rem":"−0,90%","nuestro":"−0,62%","gana":"nosotros","texto":"Estuvo más cerca DCM*. El pronóstico de DCM* quedó más cerca del dato que el 96% de las consultoras (puesto aproximado: 3 de 40).","cuando":"Pronósticos del REM de agosto de 2026 (reconstrucción)","rango":{"min":-0.9911,"p10":-0.9309,"p50":-0.9,"p90":-0.4,"max":-0.1352},"v_nuestro":-0.6181,"v_real":-0.5918},{"titulo":"Tasa TAMAR, promedio de septiembre de 2026","clave":"tasa","fuente":"BCRA","real":"23,79%","rem":"24,11%","nuestro":"24,66%","gana":"rem","texto":"Estuvo más cerca el REM. El pronóstico de DCM* quedó más cerca del dato que el 52% de las consultoras (puesto aproximado: 22 de 45).","cuando":"Pronósticos del REM de agosto de 2026 (reconstrucción)","rango":{"min":20.2,"p10":22.3964,"p50":24.11,"p90":25.27,"max":28.2},"v_nuestro":24.6623,"v_real":23.7898},{"titulo":"Exportaciones de septiembre de 2026","clave":"comercio","fuente":"INDEC","real":"US$ 10.036 M","rem":"US$ 8.796 M","nuestro":"US$ 8.749 M","gana":"rem","texto":"Estuvo más cerca el REM. El pronóstico de DCM* quedó más cerca del dato que el 46% de las consultoras (puesto aproximado: 22 de 39).","cuando":"Pronósticos del REM de septiembre de 2026 (reconstrucción)","rango":{"min":8125.0,"p10":8461.884,"p50":8795.5,"p90":9130.9723,"max":9359.0},"v_nuestro":8749.44,"v_real":10035.98},{"titulo":"Importaciones de septiembre de 2026","clave":"comercio","fuente":"INDEC","real":"US$ 7.060 M","rem":"US$ 6.820 M","nuestro":"US$ 7.362 M","gana":"rem","texto":"Estuvo más cerca el REM. El pronóstico de DCM* quedó más cerca del dato que el 45% de las consultoras (puesto aproximado: 22 de 39).","cuando":"Pronósticos del REM de septiembre de 2026 (reconstrucción)","rango":{"min":6244.6802,"p10":6536.2334,"p50":6819.6,"p90":7300.0,"max":7628.2735},"v_nuestro":7362.35,"v_real":7059.5}]}}